Industry news of international logistics industry in February 2025

I. Geopolitics and Trade Policies

1. U.S.-Russia Consensus on Ending Ukraine Conflict
   1. The U.S. and Russia agreed on February 18 to pursue a lasting resolution to the Ukraine conflict, potentially easing Western sanctions on Russian shipping. Black Sea grain exports could rebound (e.g., Ukrainian corn to 20 million tons), though Russia’s oil export shift to Asia is structural.
   1. Partial reopening of Russian airspace (50% access) may boost Asia-Europe air cargo capacity by 10%~15% and cut costs by 12%, reducing current 85% rerouting rate.
2. U.S. Tariff Adjustments
   1. 25% tariffs on Mexican/Canadian goods (10% on energy) announced Feb. 1 were suspended on Feb. 3 for negotiations; Canada retaliated with $30B tariffs.
   1. New 25% tariffs on all steel/aluminum imports took effect Feb. 10, revoking exemptions for Canada/Mexico.

II. Shipping and Port Operations

1. Alliance Restructuring
   1. 2M Dissolved: Maersk and MSC split due to strategic divergence (end-to-end logistics vs. capacity focus) and antitrust risks.
   1. New Alliances (Effective Feb.):
      1. Gemini: Maersk + Hapag-Lloyd (3.4M TEU), achieved 94% on-time rate.
      1. Premier: ONE + HMM + Yang Ming (11.6% market share).
      1. Ocean Alliance: CMA CGM/COSCO/Evergreen/OOCL extended to 2032 (4.59M TEU, 29.1% share).
      1. MSC Solo: 19.9% share, operates 191 direct Asia-Europe ports.
2. Global Port Congestion
   1. Asia-Europe: Shanghai/Ningbo delays (120 vessels queued); Hamburg/Rotterdam face 10-day delays due to labor shortages.
   1. North America: LA/Long Beach congestion surged 20%~30% pre-Lunar New Year; USEC capacity tightened post-alliance reshuffle.
   1. Latin America: Santos port disrupted by rain, carriers diverted to Itapoa.
3. Arctic Route Development
   1. Busan launched an “Arctic Route TF” to become a hub linking Northeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas, bypassing Suez.

III. Cross-Border Logistics and Supply Chain

1. Cainiao’s Overseas Warehouse Expansion
   1. Increased investment in smart warehouses across Europe/North America for large furniture/auto parts, operating 40+ facilities in 18 countries.
2. Supply Chain Restructuring
   1. 62% of logistics firms overhauled supply chains due to tariffs/inflation; 54% plan to shift production out of China in 5 years.
3. North America Cross-Border Challenges
   1. Mexico faces driver shortages, 16% cargo theft rise, and toll hikes; Canadian capacity shrank due to storms and seasonal driver exits.

IV. Air Cargo Market

1. First Demand Decline Since Mid-2023
   1. Global demand (CTKs) fell 0.1% YoY in February (base effect from 2024 leap year); Latin America grew 6.0%, while Middle East dropped 11.9%.
2. Cost and Capacity
   1. Jet fuel dipped to $94.6/barrel (-2.1% MoM); capacity down 0.4% YoY