Changes in Global Alliance of Major Shipping Companies in 2025

I. Overview of Shipping Alliance Restructuring

1. Timeline and Background
   1. Dissolution of 2M Alliance: Maersk (MSK) and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) terminated their 10-year partnership in January 2025 due to strategic divergence (MSK shifting to end-to-end logistics vs. MSC focusing on capacity expansion) and EU antitrust risks (combined market share of 34%).
   1. New Alliances Formation: From February 2025, four major groups emerged:
      1. Gemini Cooperation: Formed by MSK and Hapag-Lloyd (HPL).
      1. Premier Alliance: Comprising ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming (YML), replacing THE Alliance.
      1. Ocean Alliance: CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen (EMC), and OOCL extended cooperation until 2032.
      1. MSC Independent Operation: The world’s largest carrier (19.9% market share) operates solo, with limited slot exchanges with Premier Alliance and ZIM.

II. New Alliance Structures and Operational Features

1. Gemini Cooperation
   1. Goal: Achieve >90% schedule reliability (industry average: 53%).
   1. Network Design: Hub-and-Spoke model in Asia-Europe routes, reducing port calls and using hubs like London Gateway.
   1. Capacity: 290 vessels (3.4 million TEU), with MSK contributing 60% and HPL 40%
   1. Initial Performance: 94% on-time rate in February 2025
2. Premier Alliance
   1. Scope: Covers east-west trades (Asia-North America, Asia-Europe, Asia-Mediterranean).
   1. External Collaboration: MSC partners on 9 Asia-Europe routes via slot swaps.
   1. Capacity Weakness: Total market share of 11.6%, the smallest alliance.
3. Ocean Alliance
   1. Stability Advantage: Largest alliance (4.59 million TEU, 29.1% share), expanding to 5 million TEU.
   1. Route Dominance: Leads Trans-Pacific routes (No.1 in Asia-US West Coast share).
4. MSC Independent Operation
   1. Scale: 853 ships (6.09 million TEU, 19.9% share), with 99 new vessels on order.
   1. Strategy: Direct Port Calls network—191 direct port pairs in Asia-Europe, more than Gemini (53).

III. Market Impact and Competitive Landscape

1. Capacity Distribution and Concentration
   1. Market Share:

Alliance/Company	Share	Capacity (TEU)
Ocean Alliance	29.1%	4.59M
MSC	19.9%	6.09M
Gemini	21.6%	3.40M
Premier Alliance	11.6%	–

• Increased Competition: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) fell from 0.27 to 0.22, raising price war risks.
• Service Strategy Diversification
  • Efficiency vs. Coverage:
    • Gemini: Fewer direct ports (-16 calls) for higher reliability.
    • MSC: Extensive direct network requires more vessel capacity.
  • Pricing Tiering: Premiums of 15-20% for high-reliability services (e.g., Gemini); inefficient carriers will be out.
• Short-Term Freight Volatility
  • Capacity Gap: 2M dissolution created a 1.83 million TEU void in Asia-Europe routes. Coupled with Red Sea reopening uncertainties, short-term rate surges are possible.

IV. Industry Outlook

1. Schedule Reliability as Key Metric: Gemini’s 94% on-time rate forces industry-wide improvements
2. Long-Term Challenges: Global overcapacity (2024-2025 new vessel deliveries) and weak demand remain unresolved.